What goes into a fight forecast
- The record, in context
- Wins and losses count for more when they came against strong opposition. Every result updates a fighter's standing, and recent fights weigh more.
- How fights end
- Some fighters finish, some go to decisions, some get caught. How a fighter's wins and losses have tended to happen shapes the method forecast.
- Time in the cage
- How long a fighter's bouts usually last, and how often they reach the judges.
- The physical matchup
- Age, height, reach and stance, compared fighter against fighter.
- Output
- Striking and grappling numbers per minute from previous fights, where they exist.
- Activity
- A long layoff is part of the picture, not an afterthought.
What you can see for a fight
- Winner
- The chance of each fighter winning, adding up to 100%.
- Method
- How likely the fight is to end by KO/TKO, by submission or by decision.
- Distance
- Whether the fight is more likely to end early or go the full distance.
- The whole card
- Every bout on the card, from the main event down to the opening fight.
How to read a fight probability
Upsets are part of MMA. One punch or one scramble can end a fight in seconds, so even clear favourites lose more often than in many other sports. A 70% favourite is expected to lose about three fights in every ten like it.
The method numbers are often the most interesting part. Two fighters can be close on who wins and still have a lopsided picture of how: a striker against a grappler can be near even overall while being unlikely to reach the judges.
Late changes matter. A short-notice replacement or a change of weight class can move a forecast, so the latest numbers are the ones to read.
Labels: how much weight a number can carry
Every forecast in Oddzy carries a plain label. A Validated pick is an official Oddzy pick: it comes from a kind of forecast that has been tested against past results and held up. A Tested model forecast has been through that testing but is not an official pick. A Model estimate is Oddzy's current best read without that level of testing behind it.
Official picks are fixed before the start and graded against the final result once it is in. Nothing is changed after the fact.
What Oddzy is not
Oddzy is a sports analysis and information service for adults aged 18 and over. It does not accept wagers, take deposits, pay out prizes or link to betting operators, and a forecast is never a promise about a result.
UFC prediction questions
How does Oddzy predict UFC fights?
Oddzy weighs each fighter's record against the quality of their opponents, how their fights tend to end, how long they last, age, height, reach, stance, striking and grappling output and recent activity, and turns that into a chance of winning for each fighter.
Does Oddzy predict how a fight will end?
Yes. Alongside the winner, Oddzy shows how likely the fight is to end by KO/TKO, by submission or by decision, and whether it is more likely to finish early or go the distance.
Can a big favourite lose?
Yes, and in MMA it happens regularly. A 70% favourite is expected to lose about three fights in ten. Oddzy shows probabilities, not certainties.
Is Oddzy a betting app?
No. Oddzy is a sports analysis and information service for adults aged 18 and over. It does not accept wagers, take deposits, pay out prizes or link to betting operators.