UFC INTELLIGENCE · LIVE + UPCOMING
VI
LIVE SYNC STATUSPre-fight model only — not an in-fight live feedUFC probabilities are locked to the pre-fight snapshot because no verified round-by-round provider is connected. They are never presented as live-updating markets.
PRE-FIGHT
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UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez · UPCOMINGVERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION
RED CORNER

Uroš Medić

49.9%
MAIN CARD · WelterweightVS · Belgrade Arena
BLUE CORNER

Daniel Rodriguez

50.1%
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ODDZY · VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION40K paths · convergedVisible prior-based estimate with full-strength presentation; excluded from Picks · Verified fighter prior · Record and ranking prior

All UFC probabilities

VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION

Daniel Rodriguez · 50.1%

Daniel Rodriguez via KO / TKO

Low-confidence prior combines official career record, ranking and available UFC striking data. It is not calibrated and should not be treated as a betting guarantee.

Uroš Medić win49.9%
Daniel Rodriguez win50.1%
Expected duration12.6 minMost likely finish round 1
Combined sig. strikes96Scenario mean
Combined takedowns1.4Scenario mean
Monte Carlo40KConverged
DERIVED MARKETS ARE SIMULATION SCENARIOSMethod, round, fighter-prop and stat probabilities are visible analysis—not recommendations—until independently backtested.

WINNER

WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORUroš Medić to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES50.3%NO49.7%
WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORDaniel Rodriguez to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES49.7%NO50.3%

METHOD

METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by decisionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES28.6%NO71.4%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by KO/TKOAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES54.9%NO45.1%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by submissionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES16.5%NO83.5%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends inside the distanceAny KO/TKO or submission before the final horn.
YES71.4%NO28.6%

ROUNDS

ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 0.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round one.
OVER 0.573.99%UNDER 0.526.01%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 1.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round two.
OVER 1.557.9%UNDER 1.542.1%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 2.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round three.
OVER 2.547.1%UNDER 2.552.8%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight goes the distanceReaches the scheduled final horn.
YES28.6%NO71.4%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 3.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round four.
OVER 3.538.7%UNDER 3.561.3%

ROUND BETTING

ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 1Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES35.2%NO64.8%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 2Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES12.6%NO87.4%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 3Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES9.5%NO90.5%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 4Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES7.5%NO92.5%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 5Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.6%NO93.4%

FIGHTER PROPS

FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUroš Medić by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES27.6%NO72.4%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONDaniel Rodriguez by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES27.2%NO72.8%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUroš Medić by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES8.3%NO91.7%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONDaniel Rodriguez by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES8.2%NO91.8%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUroš Medić by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES14.4%NO85.6%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONDaniel Rodriguez by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES14.2%NO85.8%

STATS

STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined significant strikes over 94.5Broad scenario distribution; not a validated stat market. · Expected 95.6
OVER 94.545.8%UNDER 94.554.2%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUroš Medić significant strikes over 49.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 47.8
OVER 49.544.5%UNDER 49.555.5%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONDaniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 49.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 47.9
OVER 49.544.5%UNDER 49.555.5%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined takedowns over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.4
OVER 0.569.95%UNDER 0.530.05%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSubmission attempts over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 0.8
OVER 0.553.7%UNDER 0.546.3%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAt least one knockdownScenario probability informed by the KO/TKO prior.
YES50.04%NO49.96%