UFC INTELLIGENCE · LIVE + UPCOMING
VI
LIVE SYNC STATUSPre-fight model only — not an in-fight live feedUFC probabilities are locked to the pre-fight snapshot because no verified round-by-round provider is connected. They are never presented as live-updating markets.
PRE-FIGHT
← UFC Shanghai card
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song · UPCOMINGVERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION
RED CORNER

Umar Nurmagomedov

73%
MAIN CARD · BantamweightVS · Oriental Sports Center
BLUE CORNER

Song Yadong

27%
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ODDZY · VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION20K paths · convergedVisible prior-based estimate with full-strength presentation; excluded from Picks · Verified fighter prior · Record and ranking prior

All UFC probabilities

VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION

Umar Nurmagomedov · 73%

Umar Nurmagomedov via Decision

Low-confidence prior combines official career record, ranking and available UFC striking data. It is not calibrated and should not be treated as a betting guarantee.

Umar Nurmagomedov win73%
Song Yadong win27%
Expected duration16.3 minMost likely finish round 1
Combined sig. strikes134Scenario mean
Combined takedowns1.9Scenario mean
Monte Carlo20KConverged
DERIVED MARKETS ARE SIMULATION SCENARIOSMethod, round, fighter-prop and stat probabilities are visible analysis—not recommendations—until independently backtested.

WINNER

WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORUmar Nurmagomedov to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES73.03%NO26.97%
WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORSong Yadong to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES26.97%NO73.03%

METHOD

METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by decisionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES47.7%NO52.3%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by KO/TKOAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES26.6%NO73.4%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by submissionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES25.7%NO74.3%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends inside the distanceAny KO/TKO or submission before the final horn.
YES52.3%NO47.7%

ROUNDS

ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 0.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round one.
OVER 0.583.7%UNDER 0.516.3%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 1.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round two.
OVER 1.571.7%UNDER 1.528.3%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 2.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round three.
OVER 2.563.2%UNDER 2.536.8%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight goes the distanceReaches the scheduled final horn.
YES47.7%NO52.3%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 3.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round four.
OVER 3.556.3%UNDER 3.543.7%

ROUND BETTING

ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 1Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES23.2%NO76.8%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 2Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES9.5%NO90.5%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 3Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES7.6%NO92.4%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 4Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.4%NO93.6%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 5Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES5.5%NO94.5%

FIGHTER PROPS

FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUmar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES19.4%NO80.6%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSong Yadong by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES7.2%NO92.8%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUmar Nurmagomedov by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES18.9%NO81.2%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSong Yadong by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES6.8%NO93.2%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUmar Nurmagomedov by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES34.8%NO65.2%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSong Yadong by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES12.9%NO87.1%

STATS

STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined significant strikes over 134.5Broad scenario distribution; not a validated stat market. · Expected 134.3
OVER 134.556.3%UNDER 134.543.8%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONUmar Nurmagomedov significant strikes over 79.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 81.9
OVER 79.556.8%UNDER 79.543.2%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSong Yadong significant strikes over 49.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 52.4
OVER 49.557.1%UNDER 49.542.9%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined takedowns over 1.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.9
OVER 1.555.4%UNDER 1.544.6%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSubmission attempts over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.2
OVER 0.565.4%UNDER 0.534.6%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAt least one knockdownScenario probability informed by the KO/TKO prior.
YES30.8%NO69.2%