UFC INTELLIGENCE · LIVE + UPCOMING
VI
LIVE SYNC STATUSPre-fight model only — not an in-fight live feedUFC probabilities are locked to the pre-fight snapshot because no verified round-by-round provider is connected. They are never presented as live-updating markets.
PRE-FIGHT
← UFC Vegas 120 card
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · UPCOMINGVERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION
RED CORNER

Mateusz Gamrot

50.1%
MAIN CARD · LightweightVS · Meta APEX
BLUE CORNER

Quillan Salkilld

49.9%
Connecting to UFC provider…
ODDZY · VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION40K paths · convergedVisible prior-based estimate with full-strength presentation; excluded from Picks · Verified fighter prior · Record and ranking prior

All UFC probabilities

VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION

Mateusz Gamrot · 50.1%

Mateusz Gamrot via Decision

Low-confidence prior combines official career record, ranking and available UFC striking data. It is not calibrated and should not be treated as a betting guarantee.

Mateusz Gamrot win50.1%
Quillan Salkilld win49.9%
Expected duration14.5 minMost likely finish round 1
Combined sig. strikes115Scenario mean
Combined takedowns1.7Scenario mean
Monte Carlo40KConverged
DERIVED MARKETS ARE SIMULATION SCENARIOSMethod, round, fighter-prop and stat probabilities are visible analysis—not recommendations—until independently backtested.

WINNER

WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORMateusz Gamrot to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES50.01%NO49.99%
WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORQuillan Salkilld to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES49.99%NO50.01%

METHOD

METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by decisionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES38.2%NO61.8%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by KO/TKOAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES37.8%NO62.2%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by submissionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES23.9%NO76.1%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends inside the distanceAny KO/TKO or submission before the final horn.
YES61.8%NO38.2%

ROUNDS

ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 0.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round one.
OVER 0.579.5%UNDER 0.520.5%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 1.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round two.
OVER 1.565.1%UNDER 1.534.9%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 2.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round three.
OVER 2.555.6%UNDER 2.544.4%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight goes the distanceReaches the scheduled final horn.
YES38.2%NO61.8%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 3.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round four.
OVER 3.547.9%UNDER 3.552.05%

ROUND BETTING

ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 1Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES28.7%NO71.3%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 2Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES11.1%NO88.9%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 3Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES8.6%NO91.4%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 4Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES7.01%NO93%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 5Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.3%NO93.7%

FIGHTER PROPS

FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONMateusz Gamrot by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES19.1%NO80.9%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONQuillan Salkilld by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES18.8%NO81.3%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONMateusz Gamrot by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES11.8%NO88.2%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONQuillan Salkilld by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES12.1%NO87.9%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONMateusz Gamrot by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES19.1%NO80.9%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONQuillan Salkilld by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES19.1%NO80.9%

STATS

STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined significant strikes over 114.5Broad scenario distribution; not a validated stat market. · Expected 115.4
OVER 114.551.2%UNDER 114.548.8%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONMateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 59.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 57.7
OVER 59.550.1%UNDER 59.549.9%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONQuillan Salkilld significant strikes over 59.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 57.7
OVER 59.550.1%UNDER 59.549.9%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined takedowns over 1.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.7
OVER 1.550.2%UNDER 1.549.8%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSubmission attempts over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.1
OVER 0.561.7%UNDER 0.538.3%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAt least one knockdownScenario probability informed by the KO/TKO prior.
YES38.6%NO61.4%