UFC INTELLIGENCE · LIVE + UPCOMING
VI
LIVE SYNC STATUSPre-fight model only — not an in-fight live feedUFC probabilities are locked to the pre-fight snapshot because no verified round-by-round provider is connected. They are never presented as live-updating markets.
PRE-FIGHT
← UFC 330 card
UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry · UPCOMINGVERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION
RED CORNER

Islam Makhachev

72.7%
MAIN CARD · Welterweight TitleVS · Xfinity Mobile Arena
BLUE CORNER

Ian Machado Garry

27.3%
Connecting to UFC provider…
ODDZY · VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION20K paths · cap reachedVisible prior-based estimate with full-strength presentation; excluded from Picks · Verified market prior · Market-informed pre-fight estimate

All UFC probabilities

VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION

Islam Makhachev · 72.7%

Islam Makhachev via Decision

Winner probability removes the margin from the two displayed UFC moneylines. Method and round markets use a conservative career-finish prior.

Islam Makhachev win72.7%
Ian Machado Garry win27.3%
Expected duration15.2 minMost likely finish round 1
Combined sig. strikes122Scenario mean
Combined takedowns2.0Scenario mean
Monte Carlo20KReached 20K cap
DERIVED MARKETS ARE SIMULATION SCENARIOSMethod, round, fighter-prop and stat probabilities are visible analysis—not recommendations—until independently backtested.

WINNER

WINNER · MARKET SNAPSHOTIslam Makhachev to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES72.6%NO27.4%
WINNER · MARKET SNAPSHOTIan Machado Garry to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES27.4%NO72.6%

METHOD

METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by decisionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES41.9%NO58.1%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by KO/TKOAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES29.9%NO70.1%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by submissionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES28.2%NO71.8%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends inside the distanceAny KO/TKO or submission before the final horn.
YES58.1%NO41.9%

ROUNDS

ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 0.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round one.
OVER 0.580.5%UNDER 0.519.5%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 1.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round two.
OVER 1.567.2%UNDER 1.532.8%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 2.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round three.
OVER 2.558.5%UNDER 2.541.5%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight goes the distanceReaches the scheduled final horn.
YES41.9%NO58.1%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 3.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round four.
OVER 3.551.3%UNDER 3.548.7%

ROUND BETTING

ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 1Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES26.9%NO73.1%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 2Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES10.6%NO89.4%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 3Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES7.8%NO92.2%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 4Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.9%NO93.2%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 5Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.1%NO93.9%

FIGHTER PROPS

FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIslam Makhachev by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES21.5%NO78.5%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIan Machado Garry by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES8.4%NO91.6%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIslam Makhachev by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES20.3%NO79.7%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIan Machado Garry by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES7.9%NO92.1%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIslam Makhachev by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES30.7%NO69.3%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIan Machado Garry by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES11.2%NO88.8%

STATS

STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined significant strikes over 119.5Broad scenario distribution; not a validated stat market. · Expected 122.2
OVER 119.553.2%UNDER 119.546.8%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIslam Makhachev significant strikes over 74.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 74.4
OVER 74.552.5%UNDER 74.547.5%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONIan Machado Garry significant strikes over 49.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 47.8
OVER 49.551.5%UNDER 49.548.5%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined takedowns over 1.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 2.0
OVER 1.555.5%UNDER 1.544.5%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSubmission attempts over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.2
OVER 0.565.1%UNDER 0.534.9%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAt least one knockdownScenario probability informed by the KO/TKO prior.
YES33.6%NO66.4%