UFC INTELLIGENCE · LIVE + UPCOMING
VI
LIVE SYNC STATUSPre-fight model only — not an in-fight live feedUFC probabilities are locked to the pre-fight snapshot because no verified round-by-round provider is connected. They are never presented as live-updating markets.
PRE-FIGHT
← UFC Sacramento card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues · UPCOMINGVERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION
RED CORNER

Anthony Hernandez

59.2%
MAIN CARD · MiddleweightVS · Golden 1 Center
BLUE CORNER

Gregory Rodrigues

40.8%
Connecting to UFC provider…
ODDZY · VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION40K paths · convergedVisible prior-based estimate with full-strength presentation; excluded from Picks · Verified fighter prior · Record and ranking prior

All UFC probabilities

VERIFIED PRIOR · NOT A RECOMMENDATION

Anthony Hernandez · 59.2%

Anthony Hernandez via KO / TKO

Low-confidence prior combines official career record, ranking and available UFC striking data. It is not calibrated and should not be treated as a betting guarantee.

Anthony Hernandez win59.2%
Gregory Rodrigues win40.8%
Expected duration13.1 minMost likely finish round 1
Combined sig. strikes100Scenario mean
Combined takedowns1.9Scenario mean
Monte Carlo40KConverged
DERIVED MARKETS ARE SIMULATION SCENARIOSMethod, round, fighter-prop and stat probabilities are visible analysis—not recommendations—until independently backtested.

WINNER

WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORAnthony Hernandez to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES59.1%NO40.9%
WINNER · VERIFIED PRIORGregory Rodrigues to winSamples the current evidence-based winner input for convergence.
YES40.9%NO59.1%

METHOD

METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by decisionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES30.7%NO69.3%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by KO/TKOAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES38.2%NO61.8%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends by submissionAdaptive simulation of the supplied method distribution.
YES31.1%NO68.9%
METHOD · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends inside the distanceAny KO/TKO or submission before the final horn.
YES69.3%NO30.7%

ROUNDS

ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 0.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round one.
OVER 0.575.5%UNDER 0.524.5%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 1.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round two.
OVER 1.559.6%UNDER 1.540.5%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 2.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round three.
OVER 2.549.3%UNDER 2.550.7%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight goes the distanceReaches the scheduled final horn.
YES30.7%NO69.3%
ROUNDS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONOver 3.5 roundsPasses 2:30 of round four.
OVER 3.541.02%UNDER 3.558.98%

ROUND BETTING

ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 1Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES33.5%NO66.5%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 2Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES12.4%NO87.6%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 3Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES9.2%NO90.8%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 4Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES7.7%NO92.3%
ROUND BETTING · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONFight ends in round 5Exact simulated finish round; decisions excluded.
YES6.6%NO93.5%

FIGHTER PROPS

FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAnthony Hernandez by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES22.6%NO77.4%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONGregory Rodrigues by KO/TKOWinner and method joint simulation.
YES15.6%NO84.4%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAnthony Hernandez by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES18.3%NO81.7%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONGregory Rodrigues by submissionWinner and method joint simulation.
YES12.8%NO87.2%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAnthony Hernandez by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES18.1%NO81.9%
FIGHTER PROPS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONGregory Rodrigues by decisionWinner and decision joint simulation.
YES12.6%NO87.5%

STATS

STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined significant strikes over 99.5Broad scenario distribution; not a validated stat market. · Expected 100.4
OVER 99.547.3%UNDER 99.552.7%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAnthony Hernandez significant strikes over 54.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 54.6
OVER 54.546.9%UNDER 54.553.1%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONGregory Rodrigues significant strikes over 44.5Broad fighter-share scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 45.8
OVER 44.547.4%UNDER 44.552.6%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONCombined takedowns over 1.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.9
OVER 1.554.1%UNDER 1.545.9%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONSubmission attempts over 0.5Broad grappling scenario; not a validated stat market. · Expected 1.2
OVER 0.564.4%UNDER 0.535.6%
STATS · SIMULATION SCENARIO · NOT A RECOMMENDATIONAt least one knockdownScenario probability informed by the KO/TKO prior.
YES38.5%NO61.5%